{"id":47558,"date":"2026-03-18T21:20:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-as-inflation-geopolitical-risks-cloud-outlook\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T21:20:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:20:08","slug":"fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-as-inflation-geopolitical-risks-cloud-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-as-inflation-geopolitical-risks-cloud-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed keeps rates unchanged as inflation, geopolitical risks cloud outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve<\/strong> held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the same level it set in January<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Since the central bank\u2019s last meeting, political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have increased. These include the U.S. military conflict with Iran, the U.S. Supreme Court<\/strong> ruling<\/a> against tariffs and a federal judge blocking<\/a> an investigation into comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding a multibillion-dollar renovation of the Fed\u2019s headquarters. <\/p>\n

At the same time, tensions remain between the Fed\u2019s dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. These dynamics could prolong the current pause in rate cuts longer than previously expected. As recently as January, most market participants anticipated additional cuts beginning as early as April, but these expectations have since shifted to June or later.<\/p>\n

\u201cMarkets are fixated on the timing of a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz, because sustained $100 oil would keep inflation elevated in the near term and likely delay rate relief, even as recession risks build beneath the surface,\u201d said Joe Panebianco<\/a>, CEO at AnnieMac Home Mortgage<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIf prices ease before mid-April, however, we could see a sharp rally in Treasurys and a return to early-year rate levels, with the 10-year drifting back toward the low 4% range,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Mortgage rates \u2014 which tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury \u2014 have climbed recently. Data from Mortgage News Daily showed 30-year fixed rates reaching a seven-month high of 6.41% on Friday before easing to 6.36% on Monday. Meanwhile, HousingWire<\/strong>\u2019s Mortgage Rates Center<\/a> showed an average rate of 6.19% for 30-year conforming loans on Tuesday, up 4 basis points<\/a> from the previous week.<\/p>\n

The Fed is also weighing mixed economic data. U.S. employers eliminated<\/a> 92,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, compared to 126,000 additions in January, while the unemployment rate held relatively steady at 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Inflation data also remain complicated. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4%<\/a> over the 12 months ending in February, unchanged from January. But that figure predates the recent surge in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Since the Fed\u2019s last meeting, oil prices have climbed more than 50%.<\/p>\n

According to Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American<\/strong>, the Fed is taking another \u201cwait-and-see decision.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCore inflation appears to be holding near 3% and, while labor market data have been mixed over the inter-meeting period, conditions look little changed since the FOMC last met in January,\u201d Williamson said in a statement. \u201cThat combination is likely to leave policymakers in no hurry to act, particularly with recent geopolitical disruptions adding upside risk to the inflation outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com<\/strong>, said divisions remain within the committee. Some members are focused on the risks to price stability, while others have been more vocal about the risks to the labor market.<\/p>\n

Some policy watchers say investors should look beyond the rate decision itself.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe FOMC is navigating a narrow corridor where the risks of premature easing are balanced against the structural pressures of a shifting fiscal regime,\u201d said Isaac Boltansky<\/a>, head of public policy at Pennymac<\/strong>. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the market often over-rotates on the dot plot or the immediate rate path, the more consequential narrative is the Fed\u2019s posture on balance sheet normalization and the long-term neutral rate.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Editor\u2019s note: <\/strong>This is a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the same level it set in January. Since the central bank\u2019s last meeting, political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have increased. These include the U.S. military conflict with Iran, the U.S. Supreme Court…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47558"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47558\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mk.gen.tr\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}